Thursday, July 26, 2012

The Middle East After Criminla Assad

The Middle Eastafter Assad …Project Syndicate 
What is clear is that the Assad regime’s demise will have far-reaching consequences for the regional distribution of power between Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, and also for regional conflicts, particularly those involving Palestine, Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon, and Iran’s nuclear program. In addition, the Assad regime’s downfall will have broader international consequences, owing to the de facto alliance between Russia and Syria.
At the same time, developments in Syria entail not just risks, but also opportunities for the region that should be explored (though, again, without harboring false hopes). After all, regime change in Syria will come at the expense of Iran and its proxy in Lebanon, Hezbollah, and could therefore significantly reduce Iranian influence in the conflict with Israel.

Indeed, Iranian leaders’ hope that the Islamic Republic would benefit most from the Arab revolt against pro-Western dictatorships is proving to be a great, if foreseeable, error. Instead, Iran’s rulers must face the near-certainty that the consequences of the Arab awakening will sooner or later catch up with them, too, either directly or indirectly.
CommentsSyria holds a final lesson: an alliance with Russia obviously is no longer enough to ensure a regime’s survival. The strategic consequences for the Kremlin may also be profound, because Assad’s fall might doom from the start President Vladimir Putin’s new foreign-policy course, which aims to restore Russian power and global influence.

CommentsThus, the Syrian civil war’s outcome will have far-reaching implications not only for the country and its people, but also for regional and global politics, with Iran most seriously affected. Iran’s leaders have George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and their supporters to thank for their alliance with Iraq. In the end, however, that will not be enough.

HHAHA bunch of losers!