Random Life - The Killer Magic

Here's what killed your 401(k) David X. Li's Gaussian copula function as first published in 2000. Investors exploited it as a quick—and fatally flawed—way to assess risk. A shorter version appears on this month's cover of Wired.

Probability
Specifically, this is a joint default probability—the likelihood that any two members of the pool (A and B) will both default. It's what investors are looking for, and the rest of the formula provides the answer. Survival times
The amount of time between now and when A and B can be expected to default. Li took the idea from a concept in actuarial science that charts what happens to someone's life expectancy when their spouse dies.

Equality
A dangerously precise concept, since it leaves no room for error. Clean equations help both quants and their managers forget that the real world contains a surprising amount of uncertainty, fuzziness, and precariousness.

Copula
This couples (hence the Latinate term copula) the individual probabilities associated with A and B to come up with a single number. Errors here massively increase the risk of the whole equation blowing up. Distribution functions
The probabilities of how long A and B are likely to survive. Since these are not certainties, they can be dangerous: Small miscalculations may leave you facing much more risk than the formula indicates.

Gamma
The all-powerful correlation parameter, which reduces correlation to a single constant—something that should be highly improbable, if not impossible. This is the magic number that made Li's copula function irresistible.
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"Correlation trading has spread through the psyche of the financial markets like a highly infectious thought virus,"

This is all sums up nicely, the killer magic! Yes flocking was, traders was like seasonal birds, all same herding direction. If you stray the herd your death probability high or you can built your own colony, but if you stuck into the group your probability survival is greater then stray so you struck into the safety zone and share the same faith, whichever whatever outcome. No questioned, but the eventual colony they are heading for, which years years they repeat, this year alone they have no guarantee for same as past years; full of foods, nice climax for their seasonal nesting etc… the bird colony might have volcanic eruption, or sea level rise wipe off all the nesting area or sink forever under water. They have to look for another alternate colony.

All ruins civilizations were result of natural disasters, often wipe out or abandonment by people because of the lack of natural resources(food), or natural disasters. Even if they were conquered by other culture because of unfavorable geographic reasons, the natural environmental they were in, if their nests were built in strong fertile land with nice climax and grantee certain seasonal rainfall, you could built stronghold. How advance our technology might be our survival still greatly depend on nature.

This financial melting is not same devastation as a civilization ruins so we still have a hope.

Mankiw’s High in His High Five

Here Is My Reading Everything? Everything Reading?

Um what was my own favorite childhood books? Everything, even your face your hand sky milk way I guess! Before I could read they read to me books Andersen’s fables etc., but after that my grandmamma took over my upbringing, everyone surround me were story tellers. Few people were staying in our house permanently, they could tell me all sort of stories; old Korean fables folk tales, heavenly sky angles come down to milk way, meet mortals felling in love…etc, while their preparing food and housework. Something were always happening in our house so had visitors comes and go. They brought exciting news what was going on outside of the village. Sometimes I listened mind boggling stories (having love affair, little mischief etc..) without their knowing. All elders were in family, I was first child born into since 20 or some years since my youngest aunt borne. Hand me down all her books cloths as well and her hair clips, I must say my aunt ended up marrying a family whose business is book publishing in a regional city. As soon as I could read I seized everything whatever I could get. They left me alone my own devises. My grandmamma her way of thinking was every reading were good for me! Can learn from everything even little insects, birds and flowers. I devoured everything from our small school library (hardly called a library compared to cities schools) first few years. Another one was carton books shop, all sort of martial art cartons stuff that I wanted to read but my pocket money couldn’t match insatiable amount I wanted to. So one stage I fancied the carton shop owner’s son, purely wanted to get some freebees. Declare I was going to marry him when I grow up! To my grandmamma’s horror, she correct firmly seriously “No” you are destined to a married a someone etc… not marry carton shop’s boy! Feeding my head! That was why I read so early on even some of adult books from my uncle’s bookshelves. I was fascinated by sex stories, absolutely absorbed by sex; these chapters were I re-read them again, made sure I knew what was all that mean! I wanted to figure them out what I was listening around traps! Put things together! Who doesn’t I was bit early in that area that is all! Always family member bought me books or pocket money for my special events. My most loved stuff were (still) pirates and adventures, jungles stories, old King Arthurs legend, Kings and Knights, Stars, Arabian stories… Livingston and Twain etc., anything foreign lands were absolutely fascinated me. The pictures were vividly remind my heads I built my own images top of that, for example, South Seas pirates, few years back we went South Pacific Turtle Island, was exactly what I was imagined about pirates nest in my head through my reading all these year ago! I studied bible on Sunday my uncle’s church they gave me candies for exchange and I read some old religious texts to my grandmamma for my pocket money until I left for my big city adventures.

Perfect copulation

Summers in Gear

Summers owns a 1995 Mazda Protege that's registered in Massachusetts. He previously owned a 1996 Ford Taurus GL.

My correspondent opines:

I don't care if it's American or foreign-made, but how about getting something with some style? A Protege and a Taurus?! Cars just don't get more boring than that.

O Summers all in geared in his head not in his hands!

An Epicurean Of Aphrodisiac For The Warn Out Gigolo Economy

“Start-ups, not bailouts: nurture the next Google, don’t nurse the old G.M.’s.”

Sorry mates your times up! Click cut… paused… stop that is how the losers life line to cut softy delicately boldly with your angelic nursing hands, put their suffering end, put them into death. Gee… let the loser- assholes kick their bucket, don’t afraid of their burial cost, in the long-run that is much cheaper. Mercy killing act of compassion their suffering. NY Times, Friedman is flipping in his frying pan, an epicurean aphrodisiac for the warn out gigolo economy.

You want to spend $20 billion of taxpayer money creating jobs? Fine. Call up the top 20 venture capital firms in America, which are short of cash today because their partners — university endowments and pension funds — are tapped out, and make them this offer: The U.S. Treasury will give you each up to $1 billion to fund the best venture capital ideas that have come your way. If they go bust, we all lose. If any of them turns out to be the next Microsoft or Intel, taxpayers will give you 20 percent of the investors’ upside and keep 80 percent for themselves.
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These jobs will be in engineering, constructing and operating huge solar systems and wind farms and manufacturing new photovoltaics. Together they will drive innovation in all these areas — and move wind and solar technology down the cost-volume learning curve so they can compete against fossil fuels and become export industries at the “ChinIndia price,” that is the price at which they can scale in China and India.

That is how taxpayer money should be used to stimulate: limited financing, for a limited time, targeted on an industry bristling with new technology start-ups that, with a little push from Uncle Sam, won’t just survive this crisis but help us thrive when it is over. We need, and the world needs, an America that is thriving not just surviving.

But end of the day which ones are faster for the economy as always new industries take time for embryonic period to growth, so old industry in their death beds may be faster recovery; tuck in here tuck in there bit of cosmetic surgery under skillful surgeons knifes… yes depend on a surgeon with his intuition and years experience... Very expensive politically driven as a large jobs on the lines so not that easy...

If I Might Say...

Few years back we went Darwin over night for stopover before heading off outback, the enchanting Kakadu etc. Early morning I ran through city street for my ritual of high, I saw a flock of young aborigines at the park, each held bottles inside plastic bags and straight into their face, yes they were sniffing their bottle for morning high I was at the runners high and people in the street café they had caffeine high. Different types of sniffing. My lung was sniffing fresh air their lung were sniffing petrol, culture or something. It was a glorious day, sun stretched alongside oblivion of flowers blooms seascapes, so stark contrasted existent without accidental guilty. Drilleded I cursed at the water stream during the running “fucking fucking…” but I didn’t know why. Their skinny black crowed hands and their plastic bags imprinted bluest memories in a sky. I have no means patronizing their right and lifestyle. Many people doing it all over the world, all sort of drug available openly or under shade. But they do it in privative. Why than aborigines do their sniffing so openly? That was (is) my question. Today I saw two guys held their spread painting bottles in plastics bags and sniffing flight daylight. Lots of people were watching their sniffing and shake their heads, people avoid them like plagues. Their haggard dark faces held eyeballs hundred miles away for haze swinging. Their lofty bubble gum consciousness undirected above the long-legged street pavement. I asked myself, are they abandoning anything? Brutally opportunistic way, demi-godly demonized fragmentary brilliance! Demolished and displayed an installment of their probable speculation in a daylight? That is right we are aborigines what can you do about it! All you scumbag arssholes bitches get off my land! Their haze shouting were clear perfectly contorted and a dagger straight into your heart. The previous was sad bunch and later one was nerve-breaking eyeball basing exhibitionist. If I might say…

Cultural Apprenticeship

Tibetan funeral for an example, the land is rocky to dig, not enough wood to burn their deceased so they chopped corps feed to birds or fishes. That’s right, birds are sky gods and fishes are water gods. It is called “sky burial or water burial” to compassion to the nature, nice respectively disguised the gruesomeness but very much economical reason. A chivalry man’s an hour for chopping labor much cheaper then digging hours ground and buried with a nice wooden coffin. A burial alone costly but also take up land as well. Many gruesome cruelties were carried out under the glorious deeds of tradition or religion. Many cultures, customs traditions, the way how we brought up how we feel think see are very essence of unwritten honorees or squeakiness. Many time over I have deep admiration our forbears’ bold creativity and their improvisation for whatever means. Often their religious ritual was very much practical economical daily living. Yes indeed very economical. Taught us the ways of command obedience, defiance and sacrifice etc… all but dealing harsh realties with live with nature. Another incomprehensive one, old china women binding foot, must foot fetish in old days, why deformed foot? You may well ask! Not a small but a deformity was symbol of beauty, bizarre sexual fancies for pervasiveness or perverts. so pitiful crippled women are sexy then all man are sexually aroused by women’ deformity. This all please to their men! O man! So what this mean is that, all men are beast they arouse in any and any place! Whether you are wielded with promulgation intellectual sects or order of compilation Jo the plumber! Anyway billion women did it so it must be a some incredible reason to endure such painful squawked their feet into chopstick coddles for centuries. That made them feel beautiful feel sexy in their hash life, well what the hell! Current trend of women breasts augmentation, yes millions of women are doing it so must be right! If it made them feel exult of enlightenment of their womanhood that would be a great thing! In Korean, until my grandmamma generation the women virtue was ” don’t see, don’t hear, don’t feel, don’t speak” made women dumb gumbo jumbo dummies. Prisoner of their own body. Bewitched themselves as they were goodness in a orchid form. Wonder that was why so much wrath in their hearts. Every counting rosary beads were their curses, rather then happiness. That’s why shamanism so flourished in past centuries, kind of vengeance. Summons thousand gods for aid their vengeance and protects their loved ones, almost talismanic worship. Through this practice they had wilding power in their household, keep the tradition of male line and so their daughter-in-laws. No matter what, how a brilliant educated daughter-in-law was, she was a dead meat in front of sadistic her mother-in-law’s bully, torched on generations. It was a cycle of vengeful stress release magic potion, grantor of emblematic rituals and apprenticeship of tradition, then the daughter-in-law become a mother-in-law the venerated sadistic tradition keep carried on a sacred order as if they were warrior keepers of the tradition. It was called virtue! Eventually paid off their apprenticeship made them prime of domicile doyenne. The cycle went on … The survival of civilizations...

Vultures-Vampires Hidden Agendas

Dead dancing vultures, a delightful ritual for rotten economy before feasting its flesh. Snorting chant Kucok..kou.. kouck… heeinggging…Dismal scientists are feeding perishes for their very existent. No soul crisis of existential anguish when they see barren dead; instead their souls exult because of dismal numbers and hit off their furious hallelujah this is my sacred grail, I am flying wings of the storms. Saying “come on my love dead!” Cherish anoxia numbered charts. Their gullets are chocked by striving lives because they can not masticate them so they are breathlessly died out. But where is a death they are captivating. Release from their dullness. Hallelujah! Glory of digging the life in gloom doom! All are staved gluttonous, sitting highly wired fence, waiting for their enchanting rapturous banquet – blood smelted dead flesh. More rotten stinking meats are their very best gourmet. Vastly stimulates their antennas neon lights on their sockets gears on halteres ready to suck dead bloods feed their excitement. Vultures-vampires. Spread diseased with notional numbers and hypothec words, digging barren ditches fetched up their ramshackle chart build their nests than they called themselves great endeavors mankind but facts they are carnivorous hungry beasts. Wonder if economic in thriving they would have anything to dig? No, their brains thousand miles ripples away aimlessly in a boredom island and sitting desert banana shades, looking out a horizon, hoping exciting Robinson Crusoe comes to with rescue packages. While nothing to stimulate their nerve so probably they do dodos that’s why they are so excited by battered economy and cultivating their nest from rotten raft. So we never forget that their hidden agendas, we go beyond the junk-clobbers ramshackle diggings and their repellent nest buildings. Wonder ever do they have any incentive or they want this economy in any good shape?

Magnificently Alive

I don’t feel sad, joy, rage or glory anymore. I don’t know why. Ofcourse I know why! I gather I am bit of off the track at the moment. Bit of shock bit of everything. Probably stimulated my nerves so much. My feeling armor-plated of stimulus. Sealed off, off limited myself “don’t feel, don’t do dodo do”. Tucked into mountain hilltop gazing out self-infatuated destructions. Any means senses of bareness, everywhere so barren, dry dead. Ashes you know ashes that is nest of a firebird you know that too. The firebird rises from its own ash, magnificently flapping its giant fire wings, its red eyes blazing to the sun consummated each other then rise its nest to the east and around pyramids you know that too. Antipathetic traitors with shotgun on your well to do head you courtesy and mummery your own feeling cannibalized your own fear. Prematurely aborted fetus, no sense of life, die within everything. But everything like that way eventfully aren’t they? Wonder when all the skeletons of trees thwack their leaves, feel sorrows again. Little yellow greenish mouths misty lick saying “O what a sleep!” as if nothing happen, lazy cat stretch splendorous stepping out again, Hungary little misty lips here there at branches, hangs on their soft faces giggling whispering with sweet scents, melting silence butterflies summer, gowned with cobalt organza and come again, now they only harvest dead crops. Smell of rotten dead stinking. How much you can embalm rotten corpses? that is corpses. Lifelessness is embalmed ashes. Dead mean dead nothing else, not a flesh, not blood streams flow along with bluest eyed sky stepping kicking his life with vigor, O but…yes than they can cry too. I don’t meditated anymore because bit of ridiculous. Why should I? Summer should be always outrageously ominously splendor, lush shivering thunder storms highlight with his raged hellish lightning lightning is wearing a dark majestic rob marches with his chariot, come with tones of thunderbolts, wheeling over enthralling strikes here strikes there into the dark dark field raging sea, yes magnificent rage rage! Pouring wrath into the sea of rain. Kquunkg Kkwang Kkwang Kqwnking … Thronging of tears. That is how should sky angry, feast hearts, not half eaten, but eats utterly greedily carnivorously. That is how sky should feel. Feel alive feel the life, not dead but magnificently alive…

Uncle Sam Please Keeping Going

There is, however, another side to the story. The loss to American producers comes with a gain to the many millions of American consumers who prefer to pay less for the goods they buy.

The situation is much the same as when the price of imported oil falls, as it has done in recent months. Domestic oil producers may see lower profits, but American consumers are better off every time they fill up their tanks. Consumers similarly gain when a cheap yuan reduces the prices of T-shirts and televisions imported from China.

Mr. Geithner and other China critics might also want to ponder how the Chinese keep the yuan undervalued. The essence of the policy is supplying yuan and demanding dollars on foreign-exchange markets. The dollars that China accumulates in these transactions are then invested in United States Treasury securities.

So when the Treasury secretary complains about the undervalued yuan, his message to the Chinese boils down to this: Stop lending us money.

Uncle Sam his buck in the wonton soup! Here is Prof Mankiw’s mania!

Truly disastrously flirting with enemy

Very beautiful but can be ominously poisonous! Krugman's About that deflation risk

Future Jobs Training

If I am a textile worker whose job is lost because Chinese imports have caused my factory to close, I feel the pain far more acutely than consumers feel the benefits of cheap clothing. The pain tends to be localized while the benefits are spread broadly…

The solution for the displaced worker is job retraining and adjustment assistance, and to improve the safety net available to displaced workers during the transition period. We also need to revamp our educational system so that it prepares workers for the jobs that are available today -- and imparts the flexible skills that make our citizens ready for the future jobs that we cannot even imagine.
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Buy American provisions and other forms of protectionism will destroy jobs, not create them. They are an irresponsible and self-defeating response to a downturn in world economic activity. Beggar-thy-neighbor policies create more beggars and hostile neighbors.

Yeah what is future jobs that we can not even imagine? Multi talented Goethe like assassin like lover, baby surrogate, chef who can deliver allergy free old traditional meal on door step whenever we want( lazy, useless at the kitchen-person who afraid of food!), yogi— massagers –personal trainer-personal assistant- general dogs body all around(but must have plenty of space!), specializing how-to-get -around difficult obnoxious person, very perceptive so that s/he can read peoples’ body languages, snake tamers, muses, brain/neuro surgeon who can change our intelligence, teaching how to live AD1000 life and come back reality and can go future year 5000, dealing with ETs decrypted their languages and communicate with them, designers of the world of Dalí paintings come to reality, architecture who can build egoless like time machines, time taxi machine drivers, grandmamma, air-traffic controller as lots of people have own airplanes, space time tourism operators for time traveler, galaxy tourism operators; moon mars, loners, and frontiers for migrations mars, chamber ensembles, not team players, caterings romantic travelers, galaxy junkshop dealers, nasty know-it-all poets, … endless matter of opening training center… like the persistence of memory… Above all we will have an alternative universe so we won’t have to worry about job anymore as there is no such thing as economics

Become a trillionaire

But he visualized a moment when purchases might make sense, saying, "If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% to 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you."

Well, that's where stocks were in late January, when the ratio was 75%. Nothing about that reversion to sanity surprises Buffett, who told Fortune that the shift in the ratio reminds him of investor Ben Graham's statement about the stock market: "In the short run it's a voting machine, but in the long run it's a weighing machine."

Lets build our great portfolio gingerly bigger better way! navigated this awesome sea of debris pick and chose whatever I want. Lets go swelling seas bejeweled my ship with gold pearls, land of promises, pirate ghosts merchant of thieves, prince of devils, brain of macmillans, no-cherub of arrows build my paradise! Nice very nice cool sexy alive indeed feel like already a trillionaire! But where should I spend all the money? That is question!

Prof Krugman's Paradox of thrift

Yesterday’s report on consumer incomes, spending, and saving showed a sharp rise in the personal savings rate; it also showed a decline in nominal personal incomes, the third in a row, reflecting the weakening economy.

I don’t know who else has made this point, but it’s quite clear that we’re in serious paradox of thrift territory here. Or perhaps more accurately, we’re in a paradox of debt.

Consumers are pulling back because they’ve realized that they’re too far in debt. The economy is shrinking in large part because consumers are pulling back. And the result, almost surely, is to leave household balance sheets worse than ever. I can’t do this accurately until the Federal Reserve’s flow of funds data have been updated, but almost without question the ratio of household debt to personal income has been rising, not falling, as consumers try to save more.

Damnification in action.

Than he goes one
Running up large debts in risk but doing nothing much riskier and if you do you would be dammed if you don’t you would be dammed. Than what you do? You might go through chapter 11? Somehow things are getting more complex then ever. But remember we are all in a same boat either sinking or swimming - same faith! Aren’t we so lucky?

Summers V Obama

The analysis of Professor Larry Summers:

Another cause of long-term unemployment is unionization. High union wages that exceed the competitive market rate are likely to cause job losses in the unionized sector of the economy. Also, those who lose high-wage union jobs are often reluctant to accept alternative low-wage employment. Between 1970 and 1985, for example, a state with a 20 percent unionization rate, approximately the average for the fifty states and the District of Columbia, experienced an unemployment rate that was 1.2 percentage points higher than that of a hypothetical state that had no unions.

The policies of President Barack Obama:

On the economy, President Barack Obama signaled once again the ground is shifting -- this time with regard to unions.
With his signature on three executive orders, President Barack Obama expanded workers rights and reversed Bush administration orders that were seen as anti-union.
Then, the president said something that hasn't been heard in the Oval Office for a long time. "I do not view the labor movement as part of the problem, to me it's part of the solution," said President Obama.

Wow this is going to interesting. We have learnt the beauty of free market. Labor market is a market, buyers and sellers paradise. I have me you wanna buy me? Here is me, have me as your what-ever-be! You pay !@##$%%%^&&**() how that sound? Than you say how about )(*&^%$#@! I say Nob body you paid me !@#$%^&*())(*&^%$#@! End of story you pay me buck I am your what-ever-be! Cool deal done I am yours I am belongs to you now! You are my registry owner hereafter! Have nice time she is your nasty tempered 50/50=devil/cherub, you are too late! With union both of them have NO market power. Why would anyone to control over their market power. Yes everything political,Korea for example, see the Korean union was very militant still do which I understand why- some of Korean people marginalized, they contribution was immense of the chaebol dominance Korean economic growth but they believed that they had not fair share of the pie. During the 1990s Asian economic melted down Korean had to financial market and labor market reform so that Korea can compete rest of the world. During the reform Korean Gov had to deal with trade unions and asked them cooperation which they did and had to, Korean Gov made a law; prevent of employment sackings but also company survival comes first, which make sense.

Bang for Myself

Well done kid! A huge bang for Young Sun, you are a great survivor, comeback kid, you have been bravely battled with your food and you won! Here is the trophy for your bravely for free allergy for rest of your life! Would be very nice indeed! I am a savage bug killer! Yes I can do it! gosh it was bit rough more then usual was! Sounds very familiar! While I was in the dark I was testing myself. So I would know how far I could go with dark creeping savages. Was not bad though. I hypnotized myself within our little lake; insects butterfly nosy summer silence cloud perfumed cobalt face were my friends. Drunk lots of water too. I don’t share my water Yarra or any trees. Proof was our body is the most sophisticated machine. If you oiled well it always would eagerly responds to you. All these premature dead leaves on the street, early so early fallen because of no rain. All these trees are suffering immensely. You can imagine you are very thirsty but you don’t have water to drink, poor trees! Street swappers get very hard time too. Amazing sunset with early green dried leaves on street I was looking at last night, it wasn’t autumn, yes it wasn’t but season was out of order because of no rain.

Matter of Convenience

A banger’s supply and demand, give me $15 billon buck plea please!

Healing Ritual

The only way I can find out what sort food I have an allergy after I get sick then I know, so I have to sick first then I can avoid them.
When I was little I mean very little(before 12 years old) my life was in my backward village, (for me it is most beautiful place in the world!) when I had allergy my grandmamma was the doctor. Not only allergy but all sort of little things we suffer when we are growing up. we had a bogus village doctor who learnt his little tricks in army while he was serving. Anyway my grandmamma goes with her lullabies. I think all my allergy was happening at the night. So this rash all over my body, I start groan with pain, and then she took off my cloths and took me an ancient water pump area, under peach nectarine trees, nice area lots flowers insects sounds filliee ththee…zhillie… she showered me water, for summer, this was great way cooling nice, more more I asked her but for winter it was freezing cold, so cold my teeth grating like gritted doors. She couldn’t care and made me stand still, threatening me god did not heal my pain and suffering if I disobey ten thousand gods, was performing a ritual( mixed shamanism and Buddhism) and she was saying something like this:

Na-mu-gheun-sham-bo-ssal Buddhism chant (same as Christianity hallelujah)
All wisest gods from all corners of world
Sky sea, mountain earth in this house in this watering hole
Ten thousand gods
Mercy on this little pitiful soul
Please forgive this little soul
She committed worldly sin which she didn’t aware
Forgive this little soul all her ignorance
Through your wisdom, guide her goodness and virtue
She is suffered enough she is now understanding her wrong doings
She will be careful everything
Forgive her with your great generosity
Forgive her with your great wisdom…bluh bluh…

She circled around my body spread with salt with chant and rolling her rosary.

Actually always feel better after that, I think she knew, it was nothing to do healing, always it takes time to go away, but her way comforted me, something I could cling on and made me feel better to cope with my pain. And I believed my pain gone away because of her ritual. Do you think I am not good and virtuous that is why I still get allergy?

Here is cool sites for food allergy Food and Drug Administration(FDA) US Gov
Wiki Food Allergy

Savage Warning is Written by a Scary Killer!

Here is Krugman’s Scary Sword about Protectionism

And one part of the problem facing the world is that there are major policy externalities. My fiscal stimulus helps your economy, by increasing your exports — but you don’t share in my addition to government debt. As I explained a while back, this means that the bang per buck on stimulus for any one country is less than it is for the world as a whole.

And this in turn means that if macro policy isn’t coordinated internationally — and it isn’t — we’ll tend to end up with too little fiscal stimulus, everywhere.
Now ask, how would this change if each country adopted protectionist measures that “contained” the effects of fiscal expansion within its domestic economy? Then everyone would adopt a more expansionary policy — and the world would get closer to full employment than it would have otherwise. Yes, trade would be more distorted, which is a cost; but the distortion caused by a severely underemployed world economy would be reduced. And as the late James Tobin liked to say, it takes a lot of Harberger triangles to fill an Okun gap.

Let’s be clear: this isn’t an argument for beggaring thy neighbor, it’s an argument that protectionism can make the world as a whole better off. It’s a second-best argument — coordinated policy is the first-best answer. But it needs to be taken seriously.

What’s the counter-argument? Don’t say that any theory which has good things to say about protectionism must be wrong: that’s theology, not economics.
The right argument, I think, is in terms of political economy. Everything I’ve just said applies only when the world is stuck in a liquidity trap; that’s where we are now, but it won’t be the normal situation. And if we go all protectionist, that will shatter the hard-won achievements of 70 years of trade negotiations — and it might take decades to put Humpty-Dumpty back together again.

If any country adopt protectionism at current environment, should expect collective gang bang retaliation, and traumatized Humpty-Dumpty Dumpty-Humptye might warble warble down or gone berserk completely and less bang for buck world as whole. Wonkish scary scary!!

Yes I Want the Cure

Doctors who spent more — on extra tests or high-tech treatments, for instance — didn’t get better results than their more conservative colleagues. In many cases, patients of the aggressive doctors stay sicker longer and die sooner because of the risks that come with invasive care.

I tell you what, I am suffering from soybean product allergies at the moment! I know I know you don’t believe me! I think I am the most profoundly bizarre sensitive skin and digesting system in this planet. I can’t eat much greater then I can eat. Most of product I am using for my skin “sensitive skin only” kind of thing. Most baby product Ok for me and so sometimes I eat baby food too for safety sake. You don’t know what foods are attacking you. All clothing labels have to removed before put them on my skin otherwise profoundly disturbing my existence. As soon as my alarm bell gone off, Alan asks me “what did you have most recently?” then I know what causes my suffering. Hoping this is not long last! Which is worst? Hoping disease, yes the disease not the cure of course so that I have still hope some day my sensitiveness will be cured- become no-sensitive skinned!!Gosh, but we can not trust doctors too aggressive or non-aggressive! Do they have midaggressive doctor? Pitifully I am battling with my food!

‘Buy American’ Neither Sword Nor Shield

The stimulus bill passed by the House last night contains a controversial provision that would mostly bar foreign steel and iron from the infrastructure projects laid out by the $819 billion economic package. …
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But most damaging, critics say, would be the "protectionist message" attached to imposing such barriers on foreign companies.Nations including China and many in Europe are preparing to spend billions of dollars of taxpayer money on stimulus projects. American companies are angling for a piece of those pies, and retaliatory measures against U.S. companies, executives argue, could significantly complicate those efforts. This week, a European Commission spokesman threatened countermeasures if the Buy American provisions are approved.

Here is Protectionism by Bhagwati:

The fact that trade protection hurts the economy of the country that imposes it is one of the oldest but still most startling insights economics has to offer. The idea dates back to the origin of economic science itself. Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, which gave birth to economics, already contained the argument for free trade: by specializing in production instead of producing everything, each nation would profit from free trade.

Just before Christmas, Australian had economic stimulus. Ironically same period TV sales increased dramatically which are mostly Korean and Japanese made. People joke about all Australian spent their stimulus money brought foreign made TV, which it might consider economical substitute for holiday. Watching TV during the holiday.