10-second macroeconomic review
GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government spending + Exports - Imports = C + I + G + X - M
* We think the stimulus is working and increased Q2 consumption and GDP.
* The effects of the first stimulus are not yet complete. Most of the cash is out the door, but we think there will be increased consumption effects this quarter, and a diminishing amount in Q4.
* For many, "second stimulus" is code for "allow Congress to increase politically popular government spending shortly before Election Day, and call it macroeconomic stimulus."
* Increased government spending is slow and ineffective macroeconomic stimulus.